The Expected Value of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when comparing bookmakers odds. How can you calculate Expected Value in sports betting in order to predict your winnings? Read on to find out.
Expected Value
The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.
To calculate your winnings with decimal odds you just multiply your stake by the odds. 9/2 in decimal odds is 5.50, so in the example above £10 x 5.50 gives £55. To convert from fraction/ratio odds to. The following simple equation is used to calculate the potential profit of a wager with positive moneyline odds. Potential Profit = Stake x (Odds/100) Since you also get your stake back with a winning wager. To calculate '-' odds, divide 100 by the odds, then multiply that quotient by the amount you bet. For example, suppose you want to calculate how much profit a $50 bet on the Dodgers would yield. However, sportsbooks do post the odds, and the odds will ultimately tell you everything you need to know about the vig. You just need to do a little math first. The complete formula you can use to calculate vig yourself is: (Favorite odds/(Favorite odds + 100) X 100) + (100/(Underdog odds + 100) X 100) – 100 = Vig. How to calculate.
A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice - if you were to bet $10 on heads in a coin toss, and you were to receive $11 every time you got it right, the EV would be 0.5.
This means that if you were to make the same bet on heads over and over again, you can expect to win an average of $0.50 for each bet of $10.
How to Calculate Expected Value
The formula for calculating Expected Value is relatively easy – simply multiply your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet:
(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
To calculate the expected value for sports betting, you can fill in the above formula with decimals odds with a few calculations:
- Find the decimal odds for each outcome (win, lose, draw)
- Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal, and then subtract the stake.
- Divide 1 by the odds of an outcome to calculate the probability of that outcome
- Substitute this information into the above formula.
For example, when Manchester United (1.263) play Wigan (13.500), with a draw at 6.500, a bet of $10 on Wigan to win would provide potential winnings of $125, with the probability of that happening at 0.074 or 7.4%.
The probability of this outcome not occurring is the sum of Man Utd and a draw, or 0.792 + 0.154 = 0.946. The amount lost per bet is the initial wager – $10. Therefore the complete formula looks like:
The EV is negative for this bet, suggesting that you will lose an average of $0.20 for every $10 staked.
How Does Expected Value for Sports Betting Help?
Remember, a negative EV doesn't mean you're going to lose money. Unlike a coin toss, sports betting odds are subjective, and therefore if you outsmart the bookmaker, you're likely to make money.
If you calculate your own probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win.
For example, the odds imply that Wigan only have a 7.4% chance of winning. If you calculate (maybe using a system like Poisson distribution) that Wigan has a 10% chance of winning, the EV for betting on a Wigan win jumps to $3.262.
It's also a perfect measure for comparing odds in arbitrage betting, which is discussed in our article What is arbitrage betting.
Calculating the EV of bets gives bettors more information about the value of their bookmaker. While low-margin bookmakers like Pinnacle have EVs of around -$0.20, it's not uncommon for typical bookmakers to have an EV of -$1.00 – for every $10 stake you would be likely to lose a $1 .
How bookmakers make money video explainer
Found this article useful? Why not check out our video that details how to find value.
If you want to watch more educational betting videos, subscribe to the Pinnacle YouTube channel!
Welcome to the Sports Betting Odds section of The Sports Geek. If you are new to sports betting and don't understand how to read betting odds (+150, -110, +2200, etc) we will lay it all out for you and help you learn how the betting odds work.
Betting Site | Bonus | Bet Now | |
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| 1 | up to €30 Free Bet | Go to Site | |
| 2 | 22Bet | 100% up to €122 | Go to Site |
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| 4 | 10Bet | 100% up to €50 | Go to Site |
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Sports Betting Odds Explained
Many people don't know how to read or calculate sports betting odds, so below we have done our best on explaining how betting odds work. The most common type of sports betting odds used in North America are the American style odds which we explain below.
American Style Sports Betting Odds
Most online sportsbooks will list their odds in what is called 'American Odds'. There are a couple different versions of sports betting odds, but these American Odds are the most common odds used. Reading and understanding sports betting odds can bet a little confusing to beginners, so we have provided an example below using two NFL football teams:
American Odds
- Matchup Odds
- New England Patriots +120
- Pittsburgh Steelers -140
The number shown in the bracket represents the odds. The American Odds have two components to them, the first being the positive or negative sign, and the second being the number that follows the sign.
The sign in front of the number indicates whether placing a wager on that outcome will pay out more money then you have wagered or less money then you have wagered. If the odd is negative (-) it means that outcome is more likely to happen and placing a bet on that outcome would payout less than the amount you wagered, while a positive (+) odd shows that the outcome is less likely to happen and it would pay out more than the amount you wagered.
The next step is figuring out exactly how much the bet pays out, which is where the numbers in the odds come into play.
A listed odd with a – sign in front of it, such as the -140 in our example above, shows us how much money you would need to wager in order to win $100. So using the -140, this would show us that you would need to bet $140 in order to win $100 in profits. You can easily substitute the $100 bet for a $10 bet by moving the decimal place over one spot, showing us that you would need to wager $14 in order to win $10 in profits.
Examples:
How To Calculate Odds Payout
A listed odd with a + sign in front of it, such as the +120 in our example above, shows us how much money you would win on a $100 bet. Using the +120 odds, it shows us that a $100 bet on that outcome would pay out $120 in profits. Again this can easily be converted into smaller or larger size bets. A $10 bet on +120 odds would pay out $12 in profits.
Examples:
Below is an example of NFL betting odds taken from an online betting site.
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In this example you can see Los Angeles is listed at +130 ($100 bet pays $130 plus of course your original wager back) and New England is listed at -150 ($150 bet pays $100).
Calculate Sports Betting Payout
The great thing about betting online is that the online sportsbooks will do the calculations for you before you place your bet. You can click on the outcome or team you would like to bet on, and then input the amount you wish to wager and it will show you your potential pay out before you confirm your bet.
Ready To Start Betting?MyBookie and BetUS are my two favorite sportsbooks and make betting very easy. You will also get a Free Money Bonus at each sportsbook if you follow either link above.
Decimal Style Sports Betting Odds
The probability of this outcome not occurring is the sum of Man Utd and a draw, or 0.792 + 0.154 = 0.946. The amount lost per bet is the initial wager – $10. Therefore the complete formula looks like:
The EV is negative for this bet, suggesting that you will lose an average of $0.20 for every $10 staked.
How Does Expected Value for Sports Betting Help?
Remember, a negative EV doesn't mean you're going to lose money. Unlike a coin toss, sports betting odds are subjective, and therefore if you outsmart the bookmaker, you're likely to make money.
If you calculate your own probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win.
For example, the odds imply that Wigan only have a 7.4% chance of winning. If you calculate (maybe using a system like Poisson distribution) that Wigan has a 10% chance of winning, the EV for betting on a Wigan win jumps to $3.262.
It's also a perfect measure for comparing odds in arbitrage betting, which is discussed in our article What is arbitrage betting.
Calculating the EV of bets gives bettors more information about the value of their bookmaker. While low-margin bookmakers like Pinnacle have EVs of around -$0.20, it's not uncommon for typical bookmakers to have an EV of -$1.00 – for every $10 stake you would be likely to lose a $1 .
How bookmakers make money video explainer
Found this article useful? Why not check out our video that details how to find value.
If you want to watch more educational betting videos, subscribe to the Pinnacle YouTube channel!
Welcome to the Sports Betting Odds section of The Sports Geek. If you are new to sports betting and don't understand how to read betting odds (+150, -110, +2200, etc) we will lay it all out for you and help you learn how the betting odds work.
Betting Site | Bonus | Bet Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | up to €30 Free Bet | Go to Site | |
| 2 | 22Bet | 100% up to €122 | Go to Site |
| 3 | 100% up to €200 | Go to Site | |
| 4 | 10Bet | 100% up to €50 | Go to Site |
| 5 | 100% up to €50 | Go to Site |
Sports Betting Odds Explained
Many people don't know how to read or calculate sports betting odds, so below we have done our best on explaining how betting odds work. The most common type of sports betting odds used in North America are the American style odds which we explain below.
American Style Sports Betting Odds
Most online sportsbooks will list their odds in what is called 'American Odds'. There are a couple different versions of sports betting odds, but these American Odds are the most common odds used. Reading and understanding sports betting odds can bet a little confusing to beginners, so we have provided an example below using two NFL football teams:
American Odds
- Matchup Odds
- New England Patriots +120
- Pittsburgh Steelers -140
The number shown in the bracket represents the odds. The American Odds have two components to them, the first being the positive or negative sign, and the second being the number that follows the sign.
The sign in front of the number indicates whether placing a wager on that outcome will pay out more money then you have wagered or less money then you have wagered. If the odd is negative (-) it means that outcome is more likely to happen and placing a bet on that outcome would payout less than the amount you wagered, while a positive (+) odd shows that the outcome is less likely to happen and it would pay out more than the amount you wagered.
The next step is figuring out exactly how much the bet pays out, which is where the numbers in the odds come into play.
A listed odd with a – sign in front of it, such as the -140 in our example above, shows us how much money you would need to wager in order to win $100. So using the -140, this would show us that you would need to bet $140 in order to win $100 in profits. You can easily substitute the $100 bet for a $10 bet by moving the decimal place over one spot, showing us that you would need to wager $14 in order to win $10 in profits.
Examples:
How To Calculate Odds Payout
A listed odd with a + sign in front of it, such as the +120 in our example above, shows us how much money you would win on a $100 bet. Using the +120 odds, it shows us that a $100 bet on that outcome would pay out $120 in profits. Again this can easily be converted into smaller or larger size bets. A $10 bet on +120 odds would pay out $12 in profits.
Examples:
Below is an example of NFL betting odds taken from an online betting site.
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In this example you can see Los Angeles is listed at +130 ($100 bet pays $130 plus of course your original wager back) and New England is listed at -150 ($150 bet pays $100).
Calculate Sports Betting Payout
The great thing about betting online is that the online sportsbooks will do the calculations for you before you place your bet. You can click on the outcome or team you would like to bet on, and then input the amount you wish to wager and it will show you your potential pay out before you confirm your bet.
Ready To Start Betting?MyBookie and BetUS are my two favorite sportsbooks and make betting very easy. You will also get a Free Money Bonus at each sportsbook if you follow either link above.
Decimal Style Sports Betting Odds
Decimal style odds are used mostly in Europe, and are pretty easy to understand. To calculate the decimal style odds all you will need to do is simply multiply the amount you wish to wager by the decimal odds shown and you will get your payout. For example it may look something like this:
If you wanted to place a $10 wager on the USA at 2.40 you would simply need to multiply your $10 wager by the 2.40 odds (10 x 2.40) to find out that the payout is $24. It is important to realize that with decimal style odds it includes the amount you wagered, so to find out profits you would need to subtract your wager ($24 – $10) to find out your potential payout is $14 in profits.
If you wanted to place a $10 wager on Brazil you would again just multiply $10 x 1.55 to find out that you would win $15.50 total or $5.50 in profits.
How Do You Calculate Odds In Sports Betting Against
Decimal style betting odds are very simple to understand, but you won't see them displayed in many North American sportsbooks. With that said, most online betting sites will allow you to chose the style of betting odds you want displayed, with American odds set as the default.
